Bettors Gave Katie Zacharia a 94% Chance of Being Out Within a Month After Her First Briefing
Prediction markets operator gave White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia 94% odds to leave before 1 November, 2026. The odds were recorded after her first briefing, which lasted 14 minutes. They dropped right after.
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Katie Zacharia’s first day at the White House podium didn’t win over the betting markets. Her debut briefing came on Tuesday, October 13. Soon after, Mediaite reported that Kalshi bettors gave her a 94% chance of being out by November 1. That number didn’t hold for long. Still, it says a lot about how the briefing landed.
A Short First Briefing
Zacharia’s first briefing lasted about 14 minutes, the Associated Press reported. She took questions from just three outlets. The first came from Breitbart News, which sits in the “new media” seat her predecessor created. Zacharia said the White House would keep that seat.
About half of the briefing was an opening statement on the president’s record, according to PBS. Reporters were still shouting questions when she wrapped up.
CNN’s Kaitlan Collins called it “kind of bizarre.” She first said only two questions were taken, then corrected herself on air. “She took three questions,” Collins said. She added that it was “quite unusual, especially for the first press briefing.”
There were a few awkward moments, too. Forbes reported that when a reporter asked about passing the bar, Zacharia said she passed it when she “moved to China.”
A White House Official Weighs In
One of the sharpest reviews came from inside the building. An unnamed White House official told MS NOW’s Jake Traylor: “Getting behind the podium is tough, but she got off on the wrong foot.”
The official went further. “She needs to get much better, fast, otherwise she’ll break Scaramucci’s record,” they said. That’s a reference to Anthony Scaramucci, who lasted about 11 days as communications director in 2017.
How the Betting Markets Reacted
The reviews moved money. Kalshi runs a market titled “Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?” By 11:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the “before November 1” contract hit 94%, Mediaite reported.
At that price, a “yes” bet barely pays. You’d put up 94 cents to win $1.
Polymarket, Kalshi’s main rival, saw it very differently. Mediaite reported that Polymarket gave Zacharia only a 4% chance of being out by the end of October. That’s the gap that stands out most. Two markets on nearly the same question disagreed by about 90 points on the same morning.
Trump Defends His Pick
Then the president stepped in.
More than an hour after the briefing, as he left the White House for a trip to Alaska, Trump told reporters: “I thought she did excellent. She did very good.”
Where the Katie Zacharia Odds Stand Now
The panic didn’t last, though. By Wednesday morning, October 14, Kalshi showed these chances of Zacharia leaving the job:
- Before November 1, 2026: 16%
- Before January 1, 2027: 39%
- Before July 1, 2027: 66%
The Kalshi market had about $266,000 in trading volume at that point.
On Polymarket, the “out by October 31” market sat at 9%. The “out by December 31” market was at 31%. Polymarket opened that market at 11:03 a.m. ET on October 13, the day of the briefing. It has drawn about $122,000 in volume since.
So the 94% figure was a snapshot of one tense morning, not where things settled.
Who Is Katie Zacharia?
Trump announced Zacharia as press secretary on Friday, October 9, in a post on Truth Social. “It is my Great Honor to have just appointed, as Press Secretary, Katie Zacharia,” he wrote.
She replaces Karoline Leavitt, who announced in August that she was leaving the role. Zacharia started on Monday, October 12, PBS reported.
Zacharia is a conservative lawyer and commentator. She has appeared on Fox News and Newsmax. Before this job, she was a senior communications adviser at Trump Media & Technology Group, the company behind Truth Social. She also spent a short time as a spokesperson at the Department of Homeland Security, according to Axios and the AP. She holds a law degree from Pepperdine University.
The Briefing Did Make News
The debut wasn’t all about style. Zacharia announced that Trump had asked Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece, to resign. The request followed reports that Guilfoyle may have acted improperly in the post.
“She has been a wonderful asset to the team, and we wish her well,” Zacharia said, according to the AP.
Guilfoyle pushed back on X. “These allegations are false, and I intend to vigorously defend my name, my reputation, and my integrity,” she wrote, Fox News reported.
Kalshi Was Already Watching This Story
This isn’t the first time Zacharia’s name has made waves on Kalshi. Before her appointment was announced, she traded as a long shot, at about a 1% chance of getting the job.
A few small bets landed right before the news broke. Reuters reported three wagers of $19, $74, and $80, according to Covers. The largest was set to pay more than $4,000. The Wall Street Journal reported that Kalshi would look into those trades.
What Comes Next
For now, Zacharia has the president’s public backing. The betting markets have also cooled off a lot since Tuesday morning.
Her next few briefings will show whether those odds keep falling. Either way, prediction markets are moving fast on news like this, and a single briefing can swing them hard.
