PredictIt

What Is PredictIt?

What is PredictIt? It's run by the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC), a US not-for-profit that has applied for 501(c)(3) status. 

Operations transferred to PMRC from Victoria University of Wellington provide the basic tech.

A Political Predictions Market, Not a Sportsbook

PredictIt launched in November 2014 as an academic research project. It’s good to know that it is not a commercial betting product. 

That origin is exactly why the investment cap covered further down exists at all.

Is PredictIt Publicly Traded?

No. This company is run by a not-for-profit, so there's no stock ticker to look up anywhere.

Interestingly, the same rule applies to Polymarket. 

Is PredictIt Legal, and Is It Still Running?

You may want to know - is PredictIt legit? Yes. PredictIt is open and taking trades right now.

Moreover, a July 2025 settlement bars the CFTC from further efforts to shut the markets down.

The CFTC No-Action Letter

PredictIt runs on CFTC staff no-action relief, not a designated contract market license, the defining difference between this platform and Kalshi. 

Authority traces to CFTC Letter 14-130, issued October 29, 2014.

The Wind-Down Order and the Court Challenge

The CFTC rescinded that letter on August 4, 2022, and ordered a wind-down. PredictIt's users sued, and the Fifth Circuit reversed course in Clarke v. CFTC, ordering a preliminary injunction.

Notably, the case was fully resolved on July 22, 2025. It happened when a federal district court entered final judgment for PredictIt, and the CFTC issued an amended letter, 25-20, on July 14, 2025. 

One more thing worth knowing: Aristotle, the company that services PredictIt, separately received CFTC approval in September 2025 to run its own designated contract market and clearing organization, called Aristotle Exchange. That's a separate entity from PredictIt itself, though.

Who Can Trade From the US

PredictIt is available to eligible US users nationwide aged 18 and over under the no-action framework. Because it's federally regulated, this page doesn't include a state-by-state legality table.

What You Can Trade on PredictIt

The Categories PredictIt Covers

PredictIt covers politics and elections, mostly US federal and state races. Plus some financial and economic events. There's no sports, no weather, no crypto, and no culture trading.

How a Share Works

You buy Yes or No shares priced between $0.01 and $0.99. 

That price reflects the market's implied probability, and each share pays one dollar or nothing once the market resolves. You can sell anytime before it closes.

Trading Volume

PredictIt doesn't separately report trading volume. 

What is confirmed: over 400,000 active users following the July 2025 amendment. Liquidity is concentrated heavily in US political markets and thins fast outside them.

PredictIt Fees, Limits and Payouts

The $3,500 Per-Contract Cap

This is the defining constraint on the whole platform: $3,500 is the most any single trader can hold in one contract. 

That's actually tied to the federal individual campaign contribution limit, not a number PredictIt picked itself.

What Changed in July 2025

The firm started with strict limits. Each market allowed only 5,000 traders, and each contract had an $850 limit. 

So, the CFTC's July 2025 update lifted those restrictions. It removed the trader cap and raised the PredictIt investment limit to $3,500 per contract.

Trading and Withdrawal Fees

There's no fee to place a trade. PredictIt takes 10% of your net profit when a winning position closes, then a further 5% when you withdraw. 

On a $100 winning position, that's $10 off the top, then 5% of what's left on the way out, so the headline profit isn't what actually reaches your bank account. 

That cost falls only on winning trades, which adds up fast against anyone consistently profitable.

How a Market Settles

PredictIt prediction market firm resolves markets itself. It does it under rules published on each individual market page, referencing official election results and named public data sources. 

Unlike Kalshi or Polymarket US, PredictIt has no exchange rulebook self-certified to the CFTC. This is because it isn't a designated contract market.

Funding a PredictIt Account

Deposit Methods

Debit card and ACH bank transfer. That's it. There is no crypto option at all, and that is a real drawback if you're used to funding with USDC on Polymarket. Kalshi is dollars-only too, so this isn't unique to PredictIt, but it still limits how fast you can move money in.

Withdrawals and Timing

Remember the 5% withdrawal fee mentioned above. You'll meet it right here when you cash out.

Note: The PredictIt maximum investment per market allows people to hold up to $3,500 per individual contract. 

The PredictIt App

There's no native PredictIt app. 

Trading runs through the browser on both desktop and mobile, unlike Kalshi and Polymarket, which both ship native iOS and Android apps.