Kalshi
CFTC
Market category
Bet on Elections
Election prediction markets let participants bet on elections, with contracts paying $1 if an outcome happens, and $0 if they don’t. Depending on the chosen event contracts exchange, prices run from 99 cents. The price determines the implied probability, so a 78c price means 78% probability.
- US venues6
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
Disclosure: An elections event contract can settle at zero and lose its full value.
Election contracts settle on Associated Press race calls and certified results, not polls or unofficial statements. Betting on elections runs on federally regulated exchanges. Currently in the USA, five venues listed on BettingVerdict run these contracts under CFTC rules.
What Is an Election Prediction Market?
How to Bet on Elections
Many participants are wondering how to bet on elections, and the answer is on prediction market exchanges. First, you need to open an account at a CFTC-regulated venue, choose the race to bet on, and place a wager on a Yes or No contract.
Both sides pay $1 on a settlement, or nothing if the event doesn’t occur. You can sell the contract before the result is confirmed. The minimum legal age to participate in election contracts is 18 at every US operator that offers this market.
Reading the Price as a Probability
The price of an election contract reads as implied probability. At 65 cents, the market puts the chance at 65%. If you buy ten contracts at that price, it would sum up to $6.5. If the outcome happens, these ten contracts pay $10 (10 x $1)
If the outcome doesn’t happen, you get paid nothing.
Binary and Scalar Contracts
Event contract exchanges feature binary and scalar contracts. Most election contracts are binary. For example, ‘Will [candidate] win the [office] election?’ or similar.
Seat counts are scalar instead, as the outcomes split into binary exchanges (Republicans win 218-222 House seats). Only the range that matches the final count in this case pays.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Election Contracts Settle
What Settles the Contract
Bet on election contracts are not settled on rumors or unofficial sources. Each contract names the settlement source under the rules before you place a wager. It’s usually an Associated Press race call or a certified result on the relevant election authority website or press page.
Polls, forecasts, personal opinions, or media projections can’t settle a contract on their own.
When You Get Paid
Called races settle the same night or within a few days of race confirmation. Close contests may run to the state’s certification deadline.
Why a Market Price Is Not a Poll
Polls sample voter intent at one point in time. For example, US election odds on a prediction market are what a trader pays at the moment, and they’re already priced in the polls.
This is why odds for elections move continuously, while polls arrive in snapshots. For elections betting, polls are an input to a price, but not a rival to it.
Limits and Fees
Position Limits by Venue
PredictIt caps traders at $3,500 per contract. This matches the federal individual campaign contribution limit, and since July 2025, there’s no cap on traders per market.
Polymarket and Kalshi set per-market limits into each contract’s rules rather than an account-wide cap.
What You Pay to Trade
Election betting apps charge fees differently. Kalshi charges a trading fee calculated on the traded price, capping out at 50c. Polymarket has a taker fee with a similar curve, but no market fee. PredictIt takes 10% of profits and 5% on withdrawals.
Where to Trade Election Contracts
The Five US Venues
If you’re wondering ‘Where can I bet on elections in the US?’, BettingVerdict reviews five exchanges for election contracts. Each one is linked to our review.
- Polymarket: The widest elections coverage, including the upcoming 2026 midterms hub. US users trade through Polymarket US, not the international platform. It’s run by QCX LLC, a CFTC-designated contract market. Polymarket US may not be available in every state.
- Kalshi: Kalshi covers House, Senate, governor, and ballot-measure contracts, live across all six market categories.
- PredictIt: Specifically focused on political markets. Has a $3,500 cap per contract.
- Robinhood Prediction Markets: Election contracts are available via the Robinhood app, and routed to a partner exchange.
- Interactive Brokers ForecastEx: IBKR’s own exchange is available through an Interactive Brokers account.
What Differs Between Them
Where you can bet on elections depends on what you want to trade. At PredictIt, political races are the main category, while Kalshi and Polymarket include all categories, including sports.
Availability per state, fees, and limits may vary. Check each review before you decide to bet on US elections.
Available at
6 CFTC-regulated venues list bet on elections contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes | Official source agency named in each contract’s rules (e.g. Federal Reserve, USCIS) | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Crypto.com | Yes | $1 per contract if the outcome matches, $0 if not; source agency named per contract in the exchange rulebook. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Interactive Brokers ForecastEx | Yes | Source agency named per contract (e.g. FOMC, Bureau of Transportation Statistics); pays $1.00 to the winning side. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Robinhood | Yes | Set by the exchange each contract routes to, under that exchange’s rules | Not stated | Not stated |
| PredictIt | Yes | Per each market’s published rules. | Not stated | Not stated |
Polymarket
CFTC
Crypto.com
CFTC
Interactive Brokers ForecastEx
CFTC
Robinhood
CFTC
PredictIt
CFTC No-Action Letter (No-Action 14-130 / Letter 25-20)
We may earn a commission if you sign up through these links. It never affects our scores. How we make money
Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
How do election prediction markets work?
To participate in election contracts, you start by buying one that pays $1 if a named outcome happens, and nothing if it doesn’t. Prices sit between one and 99 cents, and read as the implied probability. A 65c contract puts the chance at 65%. Contracts can be sold before results.
Can you bet on elections in the US?
Yes, you can bet on elections in the USA under federal law. This includes House, Senate, and presidential elections, as well as midterms where available. Event contracts are regulated by the CFTC rather than gambling regulators. It’s illegal to bet on election contracts other than federally-regulated exchanges. For full availability by state, check our regulatory tracker.
How is an election contract settled?
Election contracts settle on the source named in the contract’s rules. This is usually an Associated Press race call or a certified result from the relevant authority. Every contract publishes the source before a trade is placed. Forecasts, polls, or media projections never settle contracts on their own.
What is the difference between election odds and polls?
A poll samples voter intents at a point in time. Market prices describe what traders are willing to pay right now, so they move continuously and already price in polls, news, and turnout expectations. Polls are an input to the price, not a competing measure.
Which sites let you trade election contracts?
Five venues reviewed at BettingVerdict list politics contracts. That’s PredictiIt, Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and ForecastEx. The exact coverage differs between venues. PredictIt lists political races only, while Kalshi and Polymarket run markets across every category, including sports, crypto, and more.
What happens to my contract in a recount?
Recounts depend on the contract rules. A contract that settles on certification stays open until the result is certified. In this case, recounts push settlement to the state certification deadline, keeping your position tradeable. Contracts that settle on a race may settle sooner. Check the rules before you trade.
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