Kalshi
CFTC
Market category
Culture Prediction Markets
Culture prediction markets let users trade contracts on entertainment outcomes. It’s similar to trading on crypto or sports contracts, except now you’re trading on award winners, box office results for movies, or public events.
- US venues4
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
Event contracts can settle at zero and lose their full value. Only players aged 18+ can trade culture prediction contracts at US-regulated prediction market operators.
The mechanism works just like on other contracts. You buy a Yes or No contract priced between 1 and 99 cents, with the price reading as a probability. Contracts are settled on the awarding body’s own announcement, not on critic’s forecasts or publisher odds boards. Two CFTC-regulated exchanges list culture contracts, which is the fewest of any category on this site.
What Is a Culture Prediction Market?
How the Payout Works
A culture contract such as “Will [Nominee] win [Award] at the [Year] ceremony?” pays $1 on settlement if it does. It pays nothing if it doesn’t. All culture contracts are priced between 1c and 99c, depending on the contract and operator.
Culture Contracts, Read as a Price
A traded culture contract price listed at a prediction markets operator shows the probability. A nominee priced at 33c is a 33% favorite in the market’s own view. This isn’t a critic’s opinion or an odds board’s guess.
Binary prediction markets contracts cover nominees directly. Scalar contracts are most often used for box office totals. They’re bucketed into a range of individual binary contracts, which work differently than binary contracts.
Grammy and Emmy Contracts
Primetime Emmy Awards and Grammy Awards work similarly to the way an Oscar prediction markets contract works.
Operators name a nominee, a ceremony date, and a price that shows the market’s implied probability. A Yes or No contract then settles the nominee’s outcome.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Culture Contracts Settle
Culture contracts settle after announcements from the awarding body. The contract is a winner or not pending an official announcement by the body in question.
Who Announces the Winner
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences settles Oscar betting odds and contracts. For music culture prediction markets, the Recording Academy settles Grammy contracts.
Box office contracts settle on a specific reporting source, written into the contract. Critic’s forecasts, odds boards, or publisher predictions never settle a contract. The official announcement does, no matter how confident the Grammy or Oscars prediction market looked before.
When You Get Paid
Participants get paid on the night of the ceremony, minutes after the announcement. Economics settle faster. Culture is the second most precisely timed category on this site, ahead of sports and crypto.
If a Category Is Withdrawn
In case a category is withdrawn, the contract has baked-in rules for this kind of situation. A nominee may be disqualified, for example, and the fallback rules should be explicitly and transparently written into the contract T&Cs.
It’s worth reading this clause before trading and not after. This kind of scenario will not be explained by the awards publisher.
Limits and Fees
The Emmy odds or Oscar odds limits and fees are set by each operator independently. Participants should check for trading fees before they buy a contract.
Position Limits by Venue
Kalshi applies per-market position limits for each individual contract. There’s no single account-wide cap. While Kalshi calculates a trading fee in the specified price, Polymarket doesn’t.
Why the Spread Costs More Than the Fee
Compared to other prediction markets at BettingVerdict, culture is the thinnest-traded book. The gap between the buy and sell price is wider than on sports, elections, or crypto prediction markets.
In reality, the spread costs traders more than the fees. If you’re trading on culture markets, this is worth checking before placing an order.
Where to Trade Culture Contracts
The Two US Venues
Kalshi and Polymarket are the only two US venues that offer culture prediction markets. Both cover major award shows (music and cinema), and box office contracts. Settlements are done in USD.
In recent years, trading volumes at Kalshi’s Oscars markets have run into tens of millions of US Dollars during a ceremony season. Kalshi has a much deeper culture prediction markets contract catalog than Polymarket.
Polymarket covers most of the same with strong volume. It settles positions in USDC, which means that traders need a stablecoin wallet instead of using their bank balance.
What Differs Between Them
Looking beyond the market coverage, the main difference between Kalshi and Polymarket is in the settlement currency. Kalshi settles in USD, while Polymarket settlements are done in USDC.
Culture market positions rise up sharply during the award season and especially nominations. As expected, it’s thin outside of the season, since culture prediction markets cluster around specific events. They don’t trade the same as sports, crypto, or election contracts.
Available at
4 CFTC-regulated venues list culture contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes | Official source agency named in each contract’s rules (e.g. Federal Reserve, USCIS) | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Crypto.com | Yes | $1 per contract if the outcome matches, $0 if not; source agency named per contract in the exchange rulebook. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Robinhood | Yes | Set by the exchange each contract routes to, under that exchange’s rules | Not stated | Not stated |
Polymarket
CFTC
Crypto.com
CFTC
Robinhood
CFTC
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Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Can you bet on the Oscars in the US?
Yes, through award event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange. You buy Yes or No on a named nominee and the contract pays $1.00 or $0.00 once the winner is announced. No sportsbook is involved, and the product is federally regulated rather than state licensed.
How do culture prediction markets work?
You trade a contract on an entertainment outcome at a price between one cent and 99 cents, and the price reads as the probability. A Best Picture nominee trading at 44 cents means the market puts the chance at 44 percent, and that number moves as traders buy and sell.
How does an awards contract settle?
On the official announcement from the awarding body, which is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences for the Oscars and the Recording Academy for the Grammys. A published odds board or a critic's forecast never settles a contract, however confident it looks beforehand.
What happens if a category is not awarded?
Every contract carries a rule for a category that is withdrawn or a nominee that is disqualified, and it is written into the contract before you trade. Read that clause first, because it is the one scenario an awards publisher will never cover for you.
Why are culture markets less liquid than other categories?
Because contracts cluster around a handful of ceremonies each year rather than trading continuously. Thinner books mean a wider gap between the buy price and the sell price, so that spread usually costs more than the trading fee. Check it before placing an order.
Get new culture markets and fee changes by email.
We’ll tell you when a venue adds culture contracts, changes its fees, or opens in your state. Nothing else.