Kalshi
CFTC
Market category
Sports Prediction Markets
A Sports prediction market lets users trade a contract on a game’s outcome against other users. It’s not like betting against the house: there’s no built-in margins baked into the lines, and you can sell your positions before an event ends. These venues operate under federal regulation, and require users to be 18+.
- US venues4
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
An important note: contracts can settle at zero, in which case they lose full value.
Contracts trade between 1c and 99c, and the price reads as a market’s implied probability. They’re settled on the official league result. At the moment, prediction markets are available at four listed US venues.
What Is a Sports Prediction Market?
Sports prediction markets are based on the premise “Will team win game?”. They pay $1 if it does, and zero if the team doesn’t.
How the Payout Works
Taking on a contract whether a team wins has two payout outcomes. If it does, it pays at $1, if it doesn’t, it pays nothing. Prices typically vary between 1c and 99c. That’s what you pay to hold the contract.
It reads directly as the market’s implied probability of the outcome. There’s no margin built in like with sports betting, which brings us to the next paragraph.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting
There’s a great difference between prediction markets and regular sports betting. Instead of betting against the house at a margin, you trade contracts against other users. This is different from sports betting lines, where the margin (vig, juice) always applies.
Unlike sports betting, you can sell your position before the game ends rather than being locked in place.
Binary and Scalar Contracts
Binary contracts resolve on match winners or a stated threshold. Think of them as a single yes/no answer: will a team win.
Scalar contracts are used for totals and series lengths. They’re thrown into a range of individual binary contracts, rather than as one continuous line.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Sports Contracts Settle
There are three important things to consider when participating in prediction markets. Those are what settles the contract, how to sell before the whistle, and when you get paid.
What Settles the Contract
Unlike traditional sports contracts, prediction markets sports contracts rely on the official final result published by the governing league to determine the settlement. Whether that’s the NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAA, or NHL, the conclusion of the contest, including overtime, settles the contract.
When You Get Paid
You get paid in minutes to hours after the final whistle, depending on the operator. Compared to sports betting or any other market types, this is the fastest-settling category.
It’s a practical advantage over other categories that take days or weeks to resolve.
Selling Before the Final Whistle
If you follow sports betting prediction markets news, you’ll see traders advising users to sell positions mid-game and lock in a profit. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position in prediction markets at any point before settlement.
This live liquidity is what separates prediction contracts from a traditional sports bet, which is locked once accepted by a sportsbook.
Limits and Fees
Position Limits by Venue
When evaluating the best sports prediction markets, traders look closely at how position caps are enforced. Per-market positions limits are written into individual contracts. That’s instead of a single account-wide cap that applies across all trading positions. This is the case with Kalshi.
What You Pay to Trade
Determining the best prediction market app for sports often comes down to fee preferences. Polymarket charges no trading fees. Kalshi has a trading fee calculated on the traded price.
At Crypto.com, sports contracts are listed on a separate CFTC-registered exchange and settled in USD. What you pay to trade is different from one platform to another.
Where to Trade Sports Contracts
The Four US Venues
Kalshi, one of the most popular US predictions markets, also has the deepest sports coverage of all four venues. It offers predictions as a CFTC-designated exchange.
Polymarket comes in second, with a broad sports catalog and a focus on US events. Robinhood offers sports contracts through partnerships rather than its own exchange.
Crypto.com works in almost the same way, with a separate CFTC-registered exchange.
What Differs Between Them
The main structural differences between the four US venues are worth knowing before signing up.
- Robinhood routes sports contracts through Kalshi’s own exchange, not its own.
- Crypto.com operates via a separate CFTC-registered exchange.
- Robinhood and Polymarket are viewed separately in this matter because of their terms and state availability.
Available at
4 CFTC-regulated venues list sports contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes | Official source agency named in each contract’s rules (e.g. Federal Reserve, USCIS) | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Crypto.com | Yes | $1 per contract if the outcome matches, $0 if not; source agency named per contract in the exchange rulebook. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Robinhood | Yes | Set by the exchange each contract routes to, under that exchange’s rules | Not stated | Not stated |
Polymarket
CFTC
Crypto.com
CFTC
Robinhood
CFTC
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Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Is a sports prediction market the same as a sportsbook?
No. On a prediction market you trade against other users rather than against the house, so there is no built-in margin in the line. You can also sell your position before the game ends. A sportsbook sets the price and holds the other side of every bet.
How do sports prediction markets work?
You buy a contract that pays $1 if a named outcome happens and $0 if it does not. The price sits between one cent and 99 cents and reads as the implied probability, so 58 cents means the market puts the chance at 58%. The price moves as traders buy and sell.
Can I sell my position before the game ends?
Yes. Contracts trade continuously until settlement, so you can sell at the live price at any point during the game and take the difference. That is the main mechanical difference from a placed bet, which is fixed once the sportsbook accepts it.
How is a sports contract settled?
On the official final result published by the governing league, covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and NCAA, taken at the conclusion of the contest including overtime. Every contract names its own settlement source in its rules before you trade. You get paid minutes to hours after the final whistle
Which venues offer sports contracts?
Four venues reviewed on this site list them: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood Prediction Markets and Crypto.com Event Contracts. Robinhood has routed its sports contracts through Kalshi's exchange and has been moving that flow to Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange it co-owns, while Crypto.com runs its own.
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