Kalshi
CFTC
Market category
Economics Prediction Market
An economics prediction market lets you trade a yes-or-no contract on something like Fed rate cut probability, a CPI print, a jobs number, or a recession odds call.
- US venues6
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
Event contracts can settle at zero and lose their full value. This page is not investment advice. You must be at least 18 years old to trade at any US-regulated prediction market venue.
An economics prediction market lets you trade a yes-or-no contract on something like Fed rate cut probability, a CPI print, a jobs number, or a recession odds call. You buy Yes or No for anywhere from one cent to 99 cents. That price is the probability the market’s putting on the outcome. Settlement comes straight from the official release itself: the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, or the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Four US venues currently list these contracts.
What Is an Economics Prediction Market?
How the Payout Works
So, how do FOMC odds or inflation prediction payouts work? Take a contract like “Will the Fed cut rates at the December meeting?”
It pays $1 if the answer’s yes. It pays $0 if not. The price stays between one cent and 99 cents while it’s trading.
Rate Cut Probability, Read as a Price
Here’s the thing about rate cut probability on these markets: the price you see is the probability.
A contract trading at 71 cents means traders, collectively, think there’s a 71 percent chance of a cut. Nobody is guessing. Real money backs that number.
Tip: Donald Trump has been pushing the Fed for lower rates for years, first with Powell and now with his own choice, Kevin Warsh. Notably, that pressure moves the interest rate probability before any vote even happens.
Binary and Bucketed Contracts
Some contracts are:
- yes-or-no bets,
- FED rate cut odds,
- a hold,
- a recession declared or not.
Others get split into buckets instead. A CPI contract might ask whether year-over-year inflation lands between 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent, with several other buckets covering the ranges above and below it.
One more distinction worth knowing: a tool like CME’s FedWatch calculates its number from futures pricing. A prediction market price is different. It’s money traders have actually put down.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Economic Contracts Settle
Which Agency Settles What
We need to mention that each contract family has its own settlement source.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics settles CPI and non-farm payrolls. The Federal Reserve settles FOMC rate decisions. And the Bureau of Economic Analysis settles GDP.
When You Get Paid
Settlement happens right at the release timestamp. Usually within minutes of the agency publishing. There is no waiting around for confirmation.
This is about as tightly timed as prediction markets get. Compare that to something like an election contract, which can take days to settle.
Why Revisions Do Not Reopen a Contract
Here’s something worth knowing before you trade. A figure gets revised sometimes. Notably, that happens all the time with job numbers, especially.
But that doesn’t reopen a contract that’s already settled. The first official print is what pays out, by all means. Doesn’t matter what the number looks like a month later.
Limits and Fees
Position Limits by Venue
Kalshi sets position limits per market, written into each contract.
It does it rather than one blanket cap across your whole account. It also charges a trading fee calculated off the price you’re trading at.
What You Pay to Trade
Fees vary by venue. They also vary by how the contract’s priced. No single flat rate applies across the board.
Kalshi’s fee moves with the price itself, higher near 50 cents, lower near the extremes. Robinhood adds its own layer on top of whatever exchange it routes to. Always check the specific market before assuming you know the cost.
Interest on Collateral
This is the one that actually changes your return if you hold a position for months. Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx pays what it calls an “Incentive Coupon,” essentially interest, on the cash you’ve got backing an open position.
It’s currently running somewhere in the 3 to 4 percent APY range, since it moves with prevailing rates. No other venue in this group does anything like it.
Where to Trade Economic Contracts
The 4 Places to Trade
- Kalshi runs the deepest economics catalog of the group, and it’s a CFTC-registered exchange in its own right.
- Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx is unusual. It’s both a CFTC-designated contract market and its own clearing organization, meaning it settles trades in-house rather than relying on someone else. That’s also where the interest-on-collateral feature comes from.
- Polymarket covers economics too, though its US regulatory footing works differently from Kalshi and ForecastEx.
- Robinhood isn’t its own exchange. It’s a brokerage that routes your trades to other venues behind the scenes. Worth flagging here: Robinhood used to route almost everything through Kalshi alone. Yet, as of a deal reported in September 2026, it now splits volume across Kalshi, ForecastEx, and a newer CFTC-licensed exchange called Rothera. You can’t choose which one fills your specific trade.
Available at
6 CFTC-regulated venues list economics contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes | Official source agency named in each contract’s rules (e.g. Federal Reserve, USCIS) | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Crypto.com | Yes | $1 per contract if the outcome matches, $0 if not; source agency named per contract in the exchange rulebook. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Interactive Brokers ForecastEx | Yes | Source agency named per contract (e.g. FOMC, Bureau of Transportation Statistics); pays $1.00 to the winning side. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Robinhood | Yes | Set by the exchange each contract routes to, under that exchange’s rules | Not stated | Not stated |
| PredictIt | Yes | Per each market’s published rules. | Not stated | Not stated |
Polymarket
CFTC
Crypto.com
CFTC
Interactive Brokers ForecastEx
CFTC
Robinhood
CFTC
PredictIt
CFTC No-Action Letter (No-Action 14-130 / Letter 25-20)
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Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
What is the probability of a Fed rate cut?
On a prediction market, the probability is the price. A contract on "Will the Fed cut rates at the next meeting?" trading at 71 cents puts the odds at 71 percent. That price moves constantly as traders buy and sell ahead of the FOMC decision.
How do economics prediction markets work?
You buy Yes or No on a scheduled data release or policy decision. Price ranges from one cent to 99 cents. The contract pays $1.00 if the outcome happens and $0.00 if it doesn't, so what you paid directly reflects the market's probability.
How is this different from the CME FedWatch tool?
FedWatch calculates its number from federal funds futures pricing. A prediction market shows something else: a price real traders actually paid for that exact outcome. Both answer the same question. One's a model output. The other is committed money on a contract that settles.
How does a CPI contract settle?
On the first official print from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, right at the release timestamp. Contracts often come as buckets, say, CPI landing between 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent year over year, and only one bucket pays $1.00 while the rest pay nothing.
Do revised figures change the outcome?
No. The first official release settles the contract. Say the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Bureau of Economic Analysis revises that figure weeks later. Doesn't matter. A settled contract doesn't reopen, and any payouts already made stand exactly as they were.
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