Kalshi
CFTC
Market category
Crypto Prediction Markets
Crypto prediction markets let users trade contracts on digital assets. It’s similar to sports, but differs in the actual contract. In general, users trade on a price threshold on a specific date, or a major event such as an upcoming ETF approval, network upgrade, or even Bitcoin halving.
- US venues4
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
Event contracts can settle at zero and lose their full value. This page is not investment advice. You must be at least 18 years old to trade at any US-regulated prediction market venue.
The mechanics are simple. You buy Yes or No contracts between one and 99 cents, with the price reading as implied probability. Unlike spot trading, you’re not buying the actual asset, but a contract that pays $1 when it settles or zero dollars when it doesn’t. Currently, three operators list crypto contracts in the USA, with Polymarket settlements in USDC rather than USD.
What Is a Crypto Prediction Market?
How the Payout Works
Taking on a contract such as “Will Bitcoin close above $X on date?” pays $1 if it does, and $0 if it doesn’t. The price varies between one cent and 99 cents, and reads directly as the market’s implied probability of the outcome.
Trading a Contract, Not the Coin
What’s important to remember when taking on crypto prediction contracts is that you never hold the underlying asset. The maximum loss is what you pay for the contract. There’s no liquidation risk like with futures positions or leveraged spot positions.
Both contracts work in a similar way. The scalar price ranges are bucketed into individual contracts. One bucket pays, the other doesn’t. Other events such as network upgrades, Bitcoin halving, or ETF approvals are binary from the start.
Will Bitcoin Hit a Price Level?
If the price for a contract such as “Will Bitcoin hit $200K?” is 55 cents, there’s a 55% chance that the event occurs. That’s the real answer, and not a forecast this page makes.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Crypto Contracts Settle
Which Price Feed Settles the Contract
The reference price index is built into the contract’s rules. The exchange or index provider reads it as a timestamp. In turn, the feed is fixed before anyone trades, instead of being chosen after the fact.
Settling on an Announcement
When it comes to contracts on network upgrades or an ETF approval, the settlement is slightly different. Official announcements come from the relevant body. This is different from a crypto price contract where the settlement comes from official exchanges.
When You Get Paid
For price contracts, you get paid at the stated timestamp. For event contracts, you get paid after official announcements.
Before you begin trading, it’s worth knowing one crucial factor. If the reference exchange or provider is unavailable at the timestamp, the contract’s fallback position rules apply. These rules are built as secondary contingency protocols used to resolve contracts when the primary data fails, halts operations, or becomes ambiguous.
Limits and Fees
Different crypto and Bitcoin prediction market operators have different fees and limits.
Position Limits by Venue
At Kalshi, the per-market position limits are written into each contract. This is the opposite of a single account-wide cap.
Polymarket charges no trading fees, and settles in contracts in USDC. Crypto.com lists crypto event contracts on its own CFTC-registered exchange in USD.
What You Pay to Trade
Kalshi charges a trading fee depending on the traded price. Polymarket charges no trading fees at all on any crypto contract, be it Bitcoin odds or an Ethereum prediction market.
Dollars or USDC
This is a practical difference worth knowing before trading crypto prediction contracts. Two of the three operators settle in USD, with Polymarket settling positions in USD Coin (USDC). To get your payout at Polymarket, you will need a wallet that holds the stablecoin. Major crypto exchanges usually have one for free that works at most prediction market operators.
Both Kalshi and Crypto.com settle contracts in USD. In this case, a bank balance or debit card is what each one requires. Payment methods, limits, and fees vary at each operator, so it’s best to check for availability rather than assuming it.
Where to Trade Crypto Contracts
The Three US Venues
There are three US venues that trade crypto prediction markets in the USA. Polymarket has the most extensive crypto contract coverage. It’s also the only one that settles contracts in USDC.
Kalshi has a broad catalog of crypto trading markets, with USD settlement. Crypto.com’s event contracts round out the list of US venues. It operates through its own designated CFTC-regulated exchange, and settles in US Dollars as well.
What Differs Between Them
Each crypto prediction market venue is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is the main distinction compared to offshore crypto casinos that fill the wider search results.
Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket are individually reviewed at BettingVerdict. Check each review separately to learn more about the full terms and how they differ from each one.
Available at
4 CFTC-regulated venues list crypto contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Yes | Official source agency named in each contract’s rules (e.g. Federal Reserve, USCIS) | Not stated | Not stated |
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Crypto.com | Yes | $1 per contract if the outcome matches, $0 if not; source agency named per contract in the exchange rulebook. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Robinhood | Yes | Set by the exchange each contract routes to, under that exchange’s rules | Not stated | Not stated |
Polymarket
CFTC
Crypto.com
CFTC
Robinhood
CFTC
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Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Is a crypto prediction market the same as trading Bitcoin?
No, it isn’t. Trading on a crypto prediction market means taking a contract on a coin’s price at a specified date, network upgrades, or events such as the Bitcoin halving. Trading Bitcoin as an asset is something completely different, and can only happen at regulated crypto exchanges, not prediction market operators.
How do crypto prediction markets work?
Crypto prediction markets work by buying a Yes or No contract on a digital asset outcome. Contracts have a price between 1c and 99c, and settle at $1 or nothing at all. The price reads as implied probability, so at 22 cents the probable outcome is 22%.
Which price feed settles the contract?
The contract’s built-in rules are read as a timestamp and drawn from crypto exchanges or other providers. Both the feed and timestamp are fixed before the trade, not after it. Because of this, the settlement doesn’t depend on which exchange you get to watch the results at.
Can I trade crypto contracts in US dollars?
Yes, although exact USD availability varies. Kalshi and Crypto.com both settle in USD. If you go with Polymarket, the settlement is done in USDC. For Polymarket, you need a crypto wallet to hold the stablecoin. This is one of the most important practical things to check before you start trading.
What happens if the reference exchange goes down?
Every crypto prediction market contract has hard-coded so-called fallback rules. These are in effect if the operator is unavailable. By definition, the fallback rules are used to resolve contracts when the primary data fails, halts operations, or is ambiguous. Read the settlement section for a contract before you trade rather than after.
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