Polymarket
CFTC
Market category
Weather Prediction Markets
A weather prediction market lets you trade a yes-or-no contract on something measured. Think of the high temperature at a named station, rainfall above a set amount, or a named storm making landfall. You buy Yes or No somewhere between one cent and 99 cents, and that price reads as the probability. Here’s the whole point of this category: contracts settle on the official National Weather Service reading at the exact station written into the contract. Let’s dive deeper into weather betting now.
- US venues2
- Contract price1¢–99¢
- Pays out$1 or $0
- Regulated byCFTC
- Minimum age18+
On this page
Event contracts can settle at zero and lose their full value. This page is not investment advice. You must be at least 18 years old to trade at any US-regulated prediction market venue.
What Is a Weather Prediction Market?
How the Payout Works
What happens if you hypothetically take a contract like “Will the high temperature in Miami exceed 85°F on a given date?” It pays $1.00 if it does. It pays $0.00 if it doesn’t.
The price trades between one cent and 99 cents.
Can You Bet on the Weather?
Yes, you can definitely bet on weather. Not through a sportsbook, though.
It works through CFTC-regulated event contracts instead, the same regulatory category covering Fed decisions and elections.
Temperature Buckets and Threshold Contracts
Some contracts are simple thresholds, above or below a stated number. Others get split into buckets.
A New York temperature contract may carve the day into ranges like 84 to 85°F, 86 to 87°F, and so on, with only one bucket paying out.
You buy1 Yes contract at 55¢
If it happens+$1.0045¢ profit
If it doesn’t$0.00You lose the 55¢ you paid
How Weather Contracts Settle
Which Station Settles the Contract
So, how to bet on the weather, and how does it settle? Here’s the detail that matters to all of us.
New York City temperature contracts don’t settle on a citywide average. They settle on one specific station: Central Park, listed under the code KNYC.
Every contract names its exact station in the rules, and it’s worth checking before you trade, since a nearby airport reading can run several degrees off from a downtown park.
A Forecast Never Settles Anything
Worth saying plainly: your weather app, a media projection, none of that touches the outcome.
Only the recorded observation from the named station counts. Doesn’t matter if every forecast in the world called for rain and it stayed dry. The station reading is what pays.
When You Get Paid
Here’s a small detail worth knowing. Daily high and low temperature contracts settle off the National Weather Service’s official Daily Climate Report.
Still, that report typically isn’t published until the following morning, not the same evening the temperature truly happened. So you’re usually waiting until the next day for confirmation, not that night.
Limits and Fees
Position Limits by Venue
What about the Kalshi weather betting? Kalshi doesn’t cap you at some fixed amount across your whole account.
However, each market sets its own limit. And it is written right into that contract’s terms. Most run around $25,000 per market, though a handful, like election contracts, allow much more for larger participants. So the real ceiling depends on which market you’re trading, instead of some rule.
What You Pay to Trade
Fees vary here, and one thing to note: Polymarket is not fee-free on weather contracts. Only its geopolitics and world-events categories carry zero fee.
Weather sits in the same fee tier as economics and culture, with a taker fee that peaks around 50 cents and shrinks near the extremes, similar to Kalshi’s fee curve.
Why Contract Length Matters Here
Daily weather contracts run and settle in a single day. What’s more, it’s the shortest turnaround of any category on this site.
That matters because a fixed trading fee eats a much bigger share of your return on a one-day contract than it would on something that runs for months.
Where to Trade Weather Contracts
The Three US Venues
- Kalshi runs the deepest daily temperature book of the three, with 20-plus mapped US cities and their exact settlement stations.
- Polymarket also covers weather: temperature, rainfall, and storm contracts, priced in USDC. Its fee structure differs from Kalshi’s, as noted above.
- Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx goes further out on the calendar than the other two. Alongside daily temperature contracts, it lists monthly and annual US temperature contracts tied to NOAA data, plus hurricane season and landfall contracts. It also clears its own trades in-house, the same setup covered on the economics page.
Available at
2 CFTC-regulated venues list weather contracts for adults 18+. Check your state before you sign up.
| Venue | Regulated by | Settlement source | Trading fee | Position limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Yes | Exchange determines the outcome from the contract’s stated criteria and data sources. | Not stated | Not stated |
| Interactive Brokers ForecastEx | Yes | Source agency named per contract (e.g. FOMC, Bureau of Transportation Statistics); pays $1.00 to the winning side. | Not stated | Not stated |
Interactive Brokers ForecastEx
CFTC
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Prediction markets are open in most states. Choose yours to check.
From our legality tracker. Not legal advice.
Frequently asked questions
Can you bet on the weather in the US?
Yes, through weather event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange. You buy Yes or No on an outcome like the high temperature in a named city, and the contract pays $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement. No sportsbook is involved, and it's federally regulated rather than state-licensed.
How do weather prediction markets work?
You trade a contract on a measured outcome, priced between one cent and 99 cents, and that price reads as the probability. Temperature contracts are usually written as buckets, so one range pays $1.00 per contract, and every other range pays nothing.
Which weather station settles the contract?
The station named in the contract rules, using the official National Weather Service or NOAA observation. New York City temperature contracts settle on the Central Park station specifically. A city average or a nearby airport doesn't count unless the contract names it.
Does a forecast ever settle a weather contract?
No. Only the recorded observation settles it. A forecast, a weather app reading, or a media projection has no bearing, no matter how close it turns out to be. Every contract states its settlement source in the rules before you trade.
How long does a weather contract run?
Daily temperature contracts run one day, with the official reading often published the following morning. These are the shortest contracts on the site. So a fixed trading fee takes a bigger bite out of your return than it would on a contract running for months.
Get new weather markets and fee changes by email.
We’ll tell you when a venue adds weather contracts, changes its fees, or opens in your state. Nothing else.